Are Electric Vehicles Really As Clean As We Think?

Electric vehicles have become the buzzword in the automotive world these days. I was amazed to see the huge crowds around two of the newest "environment-friendly" cars, the Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model 3, which were on display at the Canadian International Auto Show that I attended in February 2018. However, one question that I have always pondered over is "Are Electric Vehicles really as clean as they are portrayed to be?"

Img. 1: The 2018 Nissan Leaf

Img. 2: The Tesla Model 3

An electric vehicle (or EV) is a vehicle that does not have a conventional internal combustion engine but is instead driven by one or more electric motors. The motors are typically powered by lithium-ion batteries that are similar to the ones found in our smartphones and laptops. These batteries can also be recharged by plugging the vehicle into a conventional wall charger or through the use of specially designed fast charging outlets. This is the premise that automobile manufacturers use to position EVs as eco-friendly vehicles that have "Zero Emissions" and are the perfect solutions to combat rising levels of vehicular pollution. The trend has caught on so well that in most countries across North America, Europe and Asia, battery EVs and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) attract significant financial incentives from local and national governments.

The sad truth about EV technology is that they are only as clean as the source of electricity they rely upon. In emerging economies such as China and India, where vehicular pollution has already reached dangerous levels, the primary method of generating electricity is coal-fired power plants. As the following graph indicates, both countries together produce over a million megawatts (MW) of electricity from coal, which is the most polluting fossil fuel since burning it releases copious amounts of soot, smog and greenhouse gas emissions.

Fig. 1: Installed Coal-Fired Power Generation Capacities in MW, 2018

What is equally surprising is the fact that despite knowing that coal-fired power plants are harmful for the environment, global coal consumption is on the rise and coal power generation capacity is expected to exceed 2000 gigawatts (GW) by 2035. China, the US and India have been leading this growth and while these countries have taken some action in exploring renewable energy sources, so far it has not made any significant contributions.

Another key issue with EVs is their reliance on lithium-ion batteries. The most commonly used type of battery in EVs is the lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (LiNiMnCoO2), commonly called the NMC battery. While nickel and manganese are abundant throughout the Earth's crust, lithium and cobalt reserves are concentrated in South America (Chile, Bolivia and Argentina) and Africa (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic and Zambia). The confluence of Chile, Bolivia and Argentina forms the Lithium Triangle, a region that accounts for over 75% of the world's 16 million tonnes of known lithium reserves. Lithium production has grown exponentially since the beginning of the information age and is likely to increase further if the adoption of EVs catches on.

Fig.2: Global Annual Lithium Production

The situation gets even more interesting when we take the 7.1 million tonnes of global cobalt reserves into account. 63% of the world's cobalt comes from the Congo and this is expected to grow to 73% by 2025. The Congo is in the midst of a major humanitarian crisis, with armed militia fighting to gain control of the country's mineral reserves and sexual abuse and child labor being rampant across mines. This creates a problem in sourcing "conflict-free" cobalt for use in EV batteries which further dampens the efforts to develop a sustainable and environment-friendly source of transportation.

There is also a concern that increasing demand for NMC batteries will only make existing lithium and cobalt mining companies more powerful. If companies such as Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, the world's biggest producers of lithium and cobalt, respectively, were to raise prices of these elements to benefit from growing demand, it would drive up the costs of lithium-ion batteries and render EVs extremely expensive. This might mean that most people would be unable to afford these vehicles even after government incentives, defeating the purpose of the extensive R&D investments in developing them.

While EVs are considerably cleaner as compared to petrol or diesel vehicles as they do not emit any pollutants in the area of operation, they are nevertheless not the perfect "Zero Emissions" solution that their manufacturers and governments showcase them to be. These vehicles can only be as clean as the source of electricity being used to power them and the materials used in their production. Therefore, we must invest more towards making public transportation solutions accessible for more people in the developing world, rather than focusing on expensive personal transport systems that only allow a select few (rich people) to falsely believe that they are contributing to making the world a better place.